For better understanding of this article, I recommend you all to take a quick look on 3 articles below
First genetic analysis of swine flu reveals potency
18:36 01 May 2009 by Debora MacKenzie
The first genetic analysis of the H1N1 flu has revealed that things may not be as bad as first feared, although scientists admit that history may provide an example that no-one wants to see followed.
British scientists Nicholas Grassly of Imperial College London and Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh have studied the virus' rate of spread, and discovered that it's much slower than many had thought... in fact, only just fast enough to keep itself from dying out:
If the new virus spreads from one infected person to the next at about the same speed as ordinary flu, that gives an idea of how many cases there may have been in that time. A mathematical model permits the calculation of an important variable called R0 – the number of additional people infected, on average, by each case. If R0 is less than one, an infection dies out.
Grassly also cautions that the estimate is very preliminary. But with the data available now, he gets an R0 of 1.16 – enough for the virus to keep going, but only just.
Don't celebrate just yet, however; New Scientist points out that the flu pandemic of 1918 first presented with a similarly low rate of spread (1.45) that jumped to 3.75 during a more deadly second wave. For now, though, here's hoping that the rate falls just that little bit further to take it over the edge.
Swine flu no worse than regular flu, Napolitano says
Story Highlights
Janet Napolitano: Epidemiologists note severity of swine flu same as regular flu
Mexico City will reopen government offices and restaurants Wednesday
WHO has no plans to raise alert level to 6
Centers for Disease Control: 286 confirmed cases across 36 states in U.S.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday.
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"What the epidemiologists are seeing now with this particular strain of U.N. is that the severity of the disease, the severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of swine flu -- technically known as 2009 H1N1 virus -- topped 1,080.
The flu has been blamed for 26 deaths: 25 in Mexico and one in the United States, according to the World Health Organization.
Still, Napolitano noted, the seasonal flu results in "hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations" and roughly 35,000 fatalities each year in the United States. There are still concerns that the virus could return in the fall, in the typical flu season, as a stronger strain.
"We are cautiously optimistic that this particular strain will not be more severe than a normal seasonal flu outbreak," Napolitano said.
Napolitano acknowledged claims by health officials in Mexico, the epicenter of the H1N1 outbreak, who believe their cases have peaked and said, "I have no reason to think that is inaccurate."
The WHO said there were no immediate plans to raise its alert to the highest level, Phase 6. That designation would mean "that we are seeing continued spread of the virus to countries outside of one region," Assistant Director-General Keiji Fukuda said.
"If you are seeing community outbreaks occur in multiple regions of the world, it really tells us if the virus has established itself and that we can expect to see disease in most countries in the world."
In the United States, the CDC on Monday reported confirmed 279 cases across 36 states -- 60 more than were confirmed the day before. Several states, including New York and Massachusetts, confirmed dozens more cases Monday that were not immediately added to the CDC tallyEarlier, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said the CDC "erroneously" doubled the cases in his state. Jindal confirmed his state's total is seven, and the CDC dropped its nationwide count from 286 to 279.
Many of the cases are among children; the median age is 16, said Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC. The youngest confirmed case is a 3-month-old, he said.
There are also more than 700 probable cases across 44 states, Besser said.
"This likely represents an underestimation of the total number of cases across the country," he said, because not everyone with flu-like symptoms goes to the doctor and gets tested.
The numbers are expected to increase. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC's interim deputy director for public health, said Sunday, "We believe we're just on the upswing here."
But in Mexico, where the first cases were reported, illnesses may have peaked for now.
Mexico City will reopen government offices and restaurants Wednesday, and museums, libraries and churches Thursday as officials cited improvements in the battle against swine flu.
Officials said university and secondary students can return to class Thursday while younger students will wait until May 11.
In another sign of improving conditions with the H1N1 virus, federal officials lowered the nation's health alert level Monday from red, or "high," to orange, or "elevated."
"The measures we have taken, and above all the public's reaction, have led to an improvement," Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said at a news conference.
"But I insist that the virus is still present, that we need to remain on alert, and the resumption of activities will be little by little, not all at once."
The Mexican and Chinese government sent chartered flights to each other's countries Tuesday to pick up their respective nationals stranded or quarantined because of the global swine flu outbreak.
An Aeromexico flight was making several stops throughout China to collect nearly 70 citizens who were being held in quarantine across the communist nation as part of its strict swine flu-control measures.
The flight will make stops in Beijing, Shanghai and the southern city of Guangzhou.
Meanwhile, a U.S. Embassy official said four Americans are or were quarantined in China: two in Beijing; two in the southern Guangdong province.
The official could not say whether the two in Guangdong had been released, nor did she provide additional details.
In the U.S., residents gripped by concerns about the swine flu, also had a hopeful sign Monday. The St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, New York -- which had the first confirmed U.S. cases of swine flu -- reopened Monday.
More than 100 St. Francis students had come down with flu symptoms two weeks ago. Some were tested and found to have the H1N1 virus.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was on hand to welcome them back to a school that had undergone an intense scrub-down.
"The school has been completely sanitized," St. Francis Principal Leonard Conway said in a letter to students and their parents.
The U.S. Department of Education said that 533 schools were shut Monday, about 100 more than Friday and about half of 1 percent of all schools in the United States. The closures affect about 330,000 students in 24 states.
New cases of swine flu were leaving soldiers isolated in California.
A spokeswoman for the U.S. Marine Base at Twentynine Palms, north of Palm Springs, California, said two new cases of the flu were confirmed by the CDC. The two Marines show no symptoms but are being kept in isolation, spokeswoman Jennie Haskamp said. Previously, one other case was confirmed at the base.
The U.S. Defense Department also reported that a crew member stationed aboard the USS Dubuque in San Diego, California, was confirmed to have swine flu and is currently ashore. The department said there were 13 other "probable" cases among Dubuque personnel.
And California officials were looking into a suspected case at Centinela State Prison in Imperial County. Authorities suspended visitation and other "non-essential activities" at the prison pending confirmation.
Even as health officials worldwide worked to battle the outbreak, intense efforts were under way to develop a vaccine -- with lessons from history in mind.
"In 1918, the Spanish flu showed a surge in the spring and then disappeared in the summer months, only to return in the autumn of 1918 with a vengeance," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said Sunday. "And we know that that eventually killed 40 million to 50 million people."
Health officials are not making such dire predictions in this case. And they can't know for certain whether the swine flu will make a big return later in the year.
Still, they're taking no chances.
In that effort, health officials have a tool unlike anything they've had before.
"This is the best surveillance we've ever had," Fukuda said Monday. "You know, we're really monitoring and able to see a situation unfold in a way we have never been able to do in history before."
In Hong Kong, about 200 hotel guests and 100 staff members at the Metropark Hotel remain under quarantine until Friday after health officials determined that a guest there had contracted the H1N1 virus.
"We go down to the lobby for food and then back to the room to eat your food," said Leslie Carr, a British man who is one of the 300 stuck at the hotel. "Not many people are downstairs hanging around to talk or discuss anything."
Hong Kong, in particular, is extra careful after a SARS outbreak in 2003 killed almost 300 people.
"In view of the lack of data ... we have to be very cautious," said Yuen Kwok-Yung of Hong Kong University. "I believe that as time goes by, we can change our strategy."
CNN's Karl Penhaul in Mexico City, John Vause in Beijing, Diana Magnay in Geneva and Pauline Choo in Hong Kong contributed to this report
Hysteria over swine flu is the real danger, some say
Story Highlights
Ron Paul: "There is too much hysteria ... there hasn't been that great a danger"
"I haven't seen such a panic," says Southern California medical official
Some say there are other diseases to worry about: "Malaria is killing thousands"
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May 4, 2009 -- Updated 0817 GMT (1617 HKT)
number of swine flu cases rises around the world, so is a gradual backlash -- with some saying the threat the virus poses is overblown.
By Monday, 985 cases of the virus, known as influenza A (H1N1), had been confirmed in 20 countries, the World Health Organization said. The number of fatalities was at 26, including one in the United States.
"There is too much hysteria in the country and so far, there hasn't been that great a danger," said Congressman Ron Paul, a Republican from Texas. "It's overblown, grossly so."
Paul, who was a freshman congressman during a swine flu outbreak in 1976, said Congress voted to inoculate the whole country at the time.
Twenty-five people died from the inoculation while one person was killed by the flu, Paul said, adding that he voted against inoculation.
The United States' only death this year from the virus was a 22-month-old boy in Texas who was visiting from Mexico. The other 25 deaths happened in Mexico.
"I wish people would back off a little bit," Paul said.
Others shared Paul's sentiment, saying the fear of the flu has gotten out of hand.
"We have people without symptoms going into the emergency rooms asking to be screened for swine flu at the expense of people with real illness," said Cathy Gichema, a nurse in Pikesville, Maryland.
"Schools are being shut for probable causes -- sending these kids congregating to the malls. How is that helping?" Gichema said.
Dr. Mark Bell, principal of Emergent Medical Associates, which operates 18 emergency departments in Southern California, said the level of fear is unprecedented.
"I haven't seen such a panic among communities perhaps ever," Bell said. "Right now, people think if they have a cough or a cold, they're going to die. That's a scary, frightening place to be in. I wish that this hysteria had not occurred and that we had tempered a little bit of our opinions and thoughts and fears in the media."
Governments and health officials, however, say the concern is not unfounded.
The virus, a hybrid of swine, avian and human flu, can jump from person to person with relative ease. And while most of the cases were reported in Mexico and the United States, some have been confirmed in countries outside North America.
On Saturday, the virus strain was found in a herd of swine in Alberta, Canada, and the animals may have caught the flu from a farmer who recently returned from a trip to Mexico.
It could be the first identified case of pigs infected in the recent outbreak.
"We have determined that the virus H1N1, found in these pigs, is the virus which is being tracked in the human population," said Brian Evans of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.
But Evans and other officials said it is not uncommon for flu viruses to jump from humans to animals, and that it does not pose a risk for consuming pork. The number of pigs infected was not disclosed.
In his weekly radio address Saturday, President Obama said the concerns over the new virus are justified because lack of immunity makes it potentially risky.
"Unlike the various strains of animal flu that were in the past, it's a flu that is spreading from human to human. This creates the potential for a pandemic, which is why we are acting quickly and aggressively," Obama said.
The president, who said the virus is a "cause for concern but not alarm," added the government has anti-viral treatment to treat the current strain of H1N1.
In addition, WHO started distributing 2.4 million doses of a common anti-viral drug to 72 nations.
"I think the world is infinitely better prepared than it was 90 years ago," said WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl, referring to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed as many as 20 million people.
In Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, masks have become a common fixture. Nearly half the cases in Mexico involve patients 19 and younger, the health ministry said.
"I can hold for maybe another week or two and that's it," said Guillermo Jimenez, a waiter who hasn't worked in a week since the government ordered about 35,000 public venues to shut down. "We don't have any money. We have mouths to feed. I don't know what I'm going to do now."
Still, some say the hype over H1N1 has led to undue hysteria.
"I'm sure the deaths in Mexico have something do with the infrastructure," said Anthony Markovich, a graduate student in Marina del Ray, California. "I know our health care system has its flaws, but it is more advanced."
The world should focus on diseases that have more fatalities, according to Markovich.
"This is a joke compared to other things going on," he said. "Malaria is killing thousands of people daily, the economy is not getting any better, it is time to move on."
Pakistan resident Faisal Kapadia agreed.
"When you put it in context, 700 cases in the world is nothing," said Kapadia, a commodities trader in Karachi. "I understand it is a horrible new disease and governments should find a cure for it, but the media has created too much paranoia."
In my personal belief
Since it is human nature to fear of the unknown, when we first heard of swine flu and its fatal effect, we became panic that the virus will spread in worldwide like Black Death, Spanish flu and recently avien flu. Moreover, many organizations and governments began to state the caution such as WHO raised the pandemic alert to level 5 and the new cases of swine flu has been added up again and again in every kind of media since April.
By the stressful environments given by the every source, People started to become hysteria and over sanitize, drug stores are all running out of hand sanitizers. Some refused to eat pork and many people afraid to go outside. Some people might claim that it is better safe than regret later, but are all the things that we have done is rational?
The truth is the pandemic rate is quite low when compared to the typical flu. According to the study of British scientists Nicholas Grassly of Imperial College London and Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, the pandemic is not as dangerous we thought. The pandemic only just fast enough to keep itself from dying out
In fact, to be too alert and over sanitize are the main reasons that human has to face the new type of viruses’ everyday. The over sanitize cause by antibiotic and drugs which we use are the reason that our immune systems have less efficiency than before and also cause the mutation on virus. Virus and Bacteria are always evolving like human does .For example, Due to the over usage of antibiotic, a lot of viruses and bacteria have gain immunity to the drugs.
Moreover, from the articles above, swine flu has much more lower rate of spread than the regular seasonal flu and tends to have less effect when it goes outside of Mexico. (For the reason, please see: Among the swine flu mysteries: Why only deaths in Mexico? http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu.mexico/index.html ) Statically, the regular seasonal flu kills thousand of people every year and infected millions people and many fatal diseases which are more dangerous and have higher rates of spread than swine flu.
In the up coming future, we perhaps know weather swine flu is just common cold or something dangerous. In my opinion, I feel that the panic will be over soon because we start to know swine flu more, but in the case that you are still unsure of the situation, I suggest you to wash your hand properly, stay at home when you get sick, and avoid travel to risky country.
